Challenges Facing Hailemariam Desalegn (Interview)
Interview Jawar Mohammed had with a foreign journalists on what might come of Hailemariam Dessalegn’s premiership.
Sept 16, 2012 (Gulele Post)
Q. As a southerner, what challenges might he face from within the Tigrayan-dominated party?
JM. Hailemariam comes from a historically marginalized ethnic group, Wolaita, with almost no presence at the center of power and takes leadership of a state where all important pillars of power, the military, intelligence, foreign affairs and economy, are dominated by Tigreans. This means there is little chance for him to exercise real power. As his subordinates are more influencial than him, he will have great difficulty in getting his own policy implemented. Because any political or economic reform in the country requires some level of redistribution at a cost to the currently privileged groups, any such initiative by the new premier will be effectively resisted and obstructed. The only way he could possibly be able to counterbalance the negative influence of the entrenched Tigrean elites has to be by reaching out to the affiliate parties and trying to curve out and develop a support base. But such attempt will be perceived as a serious threat by the Tigreans who will take measures to swiftly neutralize him. Therefore, whether he stays three years or more, Hailemariam is unlikely to leave any foot print his own on the country’s politics.
Q. What are the consequences if he does not unify the party successfully?
JM: The EPRDF has never been a coalition of the willing, it is rather a fragile organization kept together with a clientelist system and the coercive capabilities of the TPLF and manipulative skills of Meles. The TPLF still maintains the coercive apparatus but in the absence of Meles’ Machiavellian skills, securing continued loyalty of other organizations would not be easy. However, if the fragile coalition is shaken, Hailemariam will have little role as the struggle will be a three way race among the Tigrean, Oromo and Amhara elites. Basically while he might tilt the balance of factional struggle one way or another by throwing the weight of his symbolic position, he will not be a game changer. Thus, while Meles, through his skills and power, was a unifying figure for the coalition, Hailemariam lacks both and consequently will have insignificant role in either keeping the party united or fracture it.
Q. What economic challenges does he face (specifically regarding inflation and maintenance of GTP goals)?
JM. He is inheriting myriad of economic problems. The first is skyrocketing living cost that has become unbearable, particularly for the large urban poor. The other is high youth unemployment as just a tiny fraction of those who graduated in the last couple of years have secured jobs. Controlling inflation that has been pushing up food price is another problem he has to deal with. These all have to be dealt with while maintaining the ambitious and costly mega projects planned under the GTP. Most of the external funding and foreign direct investment promised to the GTP were attracted based on the assumption that the country would remain stable and under Meles’ guidance, or even if he stepped aside, from behind the scene. Both China and the West relied on this assumption. Now that Meles’ death has thrown a cloud of uncertainty about the future, foreign investment, especially of the private sector, is going to slow down causing possible halt to the various mega projects planned under the GTP. Therefore, if Hailemariam is going to maintain financial flow, he has to find a way to restore confidence of both domestic and international investors. To do so, aside from securing political stability, he also needs to surround himself with respectable and recognized economic advisers by bringing in professionals technocrats with proven track record in the academia as well as the business sector.
Q. What are the consequences if he does not address economic troubles?
JM. He has to find a way to absorb the tens of thousands of new graduates into the economy. He also has to reduce the growing and highly visible income inequality, particularly in the capital. Failure to reduce unemployment, cost of living by stabilizing inflation (also solving the shortage ) and maintain investment flow to ensure promises of the GTP, could lead to political unrest and popular upraising.
–Full Interview at gulelepost.com
Hailemariam that Hailemariam this, Hailemariam north, Hailemariam south, Hailemariam east, Hailemariam west, etc. empty much ado about nothing and chewing old shoe rubber over and over again and again as an end in itself.
Oromos better talk and better tell us their own challenges past present and in the future since that is what is dear and near to us and is relevant and may produce the paradigm SHIFT for the Oromos, Ethiopia, the horn, Africa and Hailemariam himself.
And then again, Hailemariam has already succeeded and climbed to the very top. Hence I can also say the fact that there is nothing more successful than success itself.
I may also add the vary fact that the only direction of movement from the very top is only down wards reagrdless of when and where the downward movement may start taking place. Rememeber the fact that only diamonds are said to be forever. Even the earth shaking prime minister for life Meles just melted in to the thin are when the moment of truth arrived unannounced.
When the almighty Haile Sellassie melted in to the thin air Oromos were confused and trying to find as to which way to turn if there is any need for turning in any direction.
When King Haile Sellassie’s replacer the almighty dictator Mengistu melted in to the thin air Oromos were confused and trying to wake up and find which way to turn if there is any need of waking up and turning in any direction.
Then came the crucial time when Mengistu regime replacer dictator Meles simply melted in to the thin air again leaving Oromos divided and confused, trying to find if there is any need of waking up and turning in any direction.
Then came now Hailemariam who replaced Meles zenawi and yet again Oromos are practicing their most favoured traditional theatrical tragic comedy role playing in the form of speculating and thinking if there is any need of waking up from their deep sleep and attempt to turn in any direction.
So, let us keep doing what we have always been doing as well as keep geting what we have always been getting, that is to say, dictatorship, domination and exploitations of the majority by the tiny minority. Politics is the game of knowledge, wisdon and wits.
“He is a very positive captain; he is proactive as well as reactive. He is keen to read the game, to get in there, and he never stops thinking about the game, the situation, and trying to turn it to his advantage. He has been very good for the game.” ~David Gower
Oduu, 100% TRUE.No mistake.
The transfer of power back and forth between to oppressors ( Ahmaras and Tigres) can not bring a permanent solution to the region and it better to call more comprehensive changes the could bring win-win solution. The empire was not created twenty one years ago. According to your ( Abyssinians )calculation, it was 3000 years ago and the rest of Kush nations ( Oromo, Somali, Sidamas, Afar and others) have be forced after1880s by Amharas colonizers. Amhara have created this country in their own image and want to keep everyone else as foster child. Abyssinians are less than 30 % percent of the population continue dreaming to dominate the vast majority through the barrels of GUN in 21st century , this can lead to total distraction. If the 70% of the population can not rule it self or a right to self determination, they can hold this empire hostage from any meaningful progress for generations to come. Majority of the issue was created and left to a Tigreans by repressive Amhara regimes. NOW what make me surprise is when most of you celebrate as if the struggle have achieved it goals, it’s the beginning. This trends can engulf the whole country to civil war unless we divorce peacefully.
Dhuga-Basaa-oromootaa,
“…NOW what make me surprise is when most of you celebrate as if the struggle have achieved it goals, it’s the beginning. This trends can engulf the whole country to civil war unless we divorce peacefully.” you stated
Who is celebrating as if the struggle has achieved its goal? To my understanmding none.
On the contrary people are saying that the Amharas are arranging for themselves a key position of deputy prime minister for the pupose of slowly but surely bringing back the same old Amhara dictatorship of the past.
Divorce peacefully? hmmm… Easier said than done!
If you could not agree among yourselves and could not take even the tiniest step forwards inorder to directly or indirectly on short term project basis facilitate the election of the prime minister or deputy prime minister from the Oromo majority how easy can it be to facilitate the BIG project of peaceful divorse? Remember the the theoretical fact that those who function underground and those who function overground need to work together as well as need their work to be coordinated effectrively if results have to be shown.
Engulfed with civil war? hmmm..
It might be even better to live a temporary transitional civil war rather than living under eternal slavery and eternal exploitation of the majority by the minority. Despots never learn, otherwise both Haile Selassie and Mengist would have learned as well as the current minorty tyrants. Tyrants and despots can only be removed by force whether through the revolution or effective transformation.
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, will make violent revolution inevitable.” ~John F. Kennedy
Precisely that is all to it!