Egypt pushes Ethiopia to scrap Nile dam
CAIRO, Oct. 19 (UPI) – Egypt increasingly views Ethiopia’s plan to build a massive 6,000-megawatt hydroelectric dam on the Nile River as a threat to its national security because it will seriously cut the Arab state’s water supplies.
Egypt depends on the Nile for virtually all of its water and is mounting a major diplomatic and economic campaign to scupper the plan. “Even direct military action by Egypt cannot be ruled out,” observed the U.S. global security consultancy Stratfor.
Both countries have undergone major political upheavals recently, which have added to the tension in a long-running battle for control of the world’s longest river which rises in the Ethiopian highlands.
Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood now controls the presidency and Parliament following the February 2001 downfall of longtime dictator Hosni Mubarak and is locked in a struggle for supremacy with the military.
Longtime Ethiopian ruler, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, as harsh a dictator as Mubarak and whose ethnic Tigray group has long dominated the military, died Aug. 20, leaving a leadership vacuum and internal rivalries.
Meles, who came to power in 1991, had long opposed the domination of the Nile’s water flow by Egypt, and to a lesser extent Sudan, under colonial agreements that left the upstream African states — Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, the Democratic republic of Congo, Rwanda and Tanzania — with almost no control of the river’s resources.
He found Cairo’s hard-line position on the Nile particularly galling because 85 percent of the river’s water flows from the Ethiopian highlands.
There were years or fruitless negotiations between Cairo and the upstream states in the Nile Basin initiative, a forum set up in 1999 by all the Nile states.
But in 2010, Egypt found its domination of the river heavily challenged.
Ethiopia and four African states — later joined by two more — threw out a 1959 agreement imposed by British colonial rulers that gave Cairo control of 90 percent of the Nile’s water and veto power over dam construction upstream that would limit its water supplies.
They contend they need more water because of burgeoning populations, industrialization and agricultural projects.
The fall of Mubarak, who had fiercely opposed surrendering any of Egypt’s control of the Nile, left Cairo adrift.
Meles, who had already built seven small dams on the Nile, took advantage of Egypt’s disarray to announce his plan for the $5 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile and start work on it.
“Cairo fears that once the dam is completed in 2017, it will take two to three years, depending on rainfall, to fill up the 67 billion cubic meter reservoir, which could reduce the amount of water that flows into Egypt by 25 percent,” Stratfor observed.
“After the reservoir fills up, there is no guarantee that Egypt will maintain its present share of the water, and Ethiopia is already planning multiple agricultural projects on Nile tributary rivers flowing from the Ethiopian highlands.
“Speeding up the diversion of water would put added pressure on Cairo,” Stratfor noted.
So far Cairo has focused primarily on diplomatic efforts with Ethiopia and its African allies, concentrating on these countries’ parliaments whose agreement on a new water-sharing arrangement will be necessary if it is to be legally binding to supersede the 1959 agreement.
According to documents released by WiliLeaks in September, the Egyptian and Sudanese governments had planned to attack the Grand Renaissance Dam.
WiliLeaks claimed the documents originated with Stratfor. The Texas-based consultancy’s computer system was penetrated before the leaks and that may have been how the alleged documents were uncovered.
One 2010 email quoted a “high-level Egyptian source” as saying “we are discussing military cooperation with Sudan” against Ethiopia, establishing a base there from which to fly Egyptian Special Forces to destroy the Ethiopian project.
Egypt denied it had such a plan. But Stratfor noted that if diplomacy fails, “Egypt’s next most likely approach is to support proxy militant groups against Ethiopia” as it did in the 1970s and 1980s.
Stratfor said direct military action “was the least likely approach and one Cairo would undertake only if the dam was completed and significantly interrupted the water flow.
“Such a course will also largely depend on Egypt’s new leadership … but whatever its political inclination, a large-scale reduction in water from the Nile would be intolerable to any Egyptian government.”
–UPI
IN the first place Egypt and Sudan should know that Males and his Tigraye group who colonized Ethiopia since 1991 are 6% of the Ethiopian people and any drop of nile water doesn’t belong to them. The vast percentage of blue nile water comes from Oromo region.(Oromos are 50 million people out of 80 million Ethiopians)
Powerful rivers such as Didessa, Gibe and Dabus are the main tributory of blue nile with 80% of the water when it arrives in Sudan. All these rivers and others belong to western regions of Oromia (Shagar/Showa, WEllega and Ilu Ababora.) Whatever money they get even including selling our land they use it for modernizing their village city of Makale in Tigraye and for buying weapons with which they kill our people.
Oromos are the determining people as for the fate of blue nile and they fully prefer that the Egyptian and Sudanes friendly people can share it with them than the Malas and state terrorist gangs like Gadafi and Bashar. The Oromos are struggling for their freedom from this terrorist fascists sooner or latter and we can re-negotiate fairly with Egypt and Sudan in post-independence Oromia.
We , the Oromos, are purely cowardice who scare to deal with our friends to liberate ourself. Our enemies are sallling our land, coffee and minerals to buy weapons and kill us. We scare to death to use our waters to our advantage to liberate our self. We always complain of support, but never approached who couls help us. Instead we are appealing to those who support our enemy since the time of our colinization. ” horii hin dhabne Onnee dhabne”
Golden opportunity is coming home guys! If we can’t create opportunities, let’s use the one already created.
Dear Qaanquree!!
The Oromos are not cowards. You need to learn the ABC of politics. The Western politicians have effectively exploited this minority group to their advantage. This insecure minority was doing anything to please its bosses. Don’t you remember when Meles Zenawi said, “I was pressured to go to Somalia”?
Taa’anii fannisaniitu dhaabbatanii fuudhuu dadhabu jedha Oromoon. Waan warri Dhiyaa/Lixaa TPLF jiraachisuuf ijoollee isaanii Afrikaatti ergan sitti fakkaataa? Somaaliyaattis hin hergine; Tigraayittis hin hergan. Kanaaf Oromummaa cimsi; tokkummaa jabeessii diina kee aleeli.
There is only permanent political interest no permanent friendship. The ball is in your court and it is upto you to play it well. You also tried to undermine diplomacy and that is also wrong.
@ Jiruu
you said it!!! Many thanks!!