Avoiding Syria and Libya: Lessons for Ethiopia
The Long-term cost of minority dominated dictatorship and the prospect for transition to democracy
Jawar Mohammed | September 4, 2012 (The Gulele Post)
(NB: This essay was drafted before Meles Zenawi fell ill and was put on hold until things clear up. Attempt has been made to update it with the new developments)
Following the popular uprisings throughout North Africa and the Middle East, both democracy activists as well as those working to preserve the status quo are closely watching this incredible moment. While Tunisia and Egypt experienced a quick and orderly downfall of dictatorships, the uprisings in Libya and Syria turned bloody. Yemen falls somewhere in between. One of the factors that differentiate the orderly fall of a strongman from the bloody and protracted civil war is the level of sectarian concentration of power.
Three themes will be addressed in this essay. Why do certain authoritarian regimes exercise blatant discrimination when distributing rent – i.e. political power and wealth? How could such regimes concentrate power and wealth in the hands of small sectarian groups and remain in power for so long? Finally, what kind of transition is likely to take place in such situations?
Let us start with a brief look at how each of the three regimes evolved.In Syria and Libya, the status quo is characterized by extensive concentration of economic privilege and political power in the hands of a single ethnic/religious group, with the vast majority excluded. Under such conditions, transitions could only be achieved after the old regime is completely obliterated, including its support base and institutions. A cursory look at how these two countries got into their respective situations shows a remarkable similarity to the developments in Ethiopia in the last two decades.
–Full Report at Gulelepost.com
What then? Significant social changes and transformations always demanded sacrifices and were/are not a matter of dancing on the rose beds. And what is a limited time sacrifice compared to a life time shameful slavery that keeps being inherited from generation to generation causing multiple slow deaths until such a time when a certain generation comes to the stage, saying “ENOUGH IS ENOUGH”, taking the matter in to its hands, takes whatever secrifices it demands and bring about the timely and necessary changes like in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, etc. That has happened through out human history and there is nothing new in a way.
If the syrian and the Yemeni struggles are longer and more painfull it is beacuse of the fact that the tyrants have and their foreign supporters have had time enough and were able to learn from the defeated Egyptian and Tunisian tyrants and adjusted their counter strategies in good time. If the sweeping struggles were instant across the region using each and every momentum to its advantage all of these tyrants would have run away with out a shot willingly with their tails bewteen their legs.
Now the peoples struggle must necessarily build some elements of unpredictability in to the some predictable pattern of the struggle if they want surprise and over the entrenched brutal dictatorships here and there. No one can prevent social change for long beacuse it is unatural!
Actually what happened in livbya,Tunisia, Egypt and Syria is social and political changes, in case of Ethiopia it will be dismantling the prison yard to allow others to decide their future Ethiopia is an artificial state not state of nationalities within the empire. Under the name of Ethiopia it was one ethnic group government of Amara since Abyssinians quenquered other like Oromia Sidama and nilotics.
Now is a another one ethnic government of Tigray led by TPLF of Meles Zianwi.The neme Ethiopia is just a brand name of robbery, rapes genocides and enslavements.
The evedences of having traded our people for guns by Amahara is are many exslaves all over the World who have oromo names and even wrote poets in Afaan OromoTo day there is no selling eviction of Oromos from their ancestral laqnds and giving to people from Tigray ,Saudis and others.
The fore it’s is urgent and just couase to rise up for the seek of freedom and humanity to stop genocides in Gambella,Oromiaa,Sidama and in Ogadento allow the people experience peace they lost from the time occupied by euro backed amhara and now by Tigray TPLF
The time has come for oromo nation to stand up, and say enough is enough!! The change is coming, and coming sooner than the Abyssinians think. It’s time for our nation to rise up and show the whole world that we as a nation of 40 million strong desreve respect, dignity, and most of all nation hood!!!!
Yaafiroota, mee adda baasaatii natti himaa yeroo dhuma isa Oromoof dhufe jedhamu kan. Anatti wanti mullachaa jiruu habashoonni dadhabaa ta’uu isaaniif nuti waan hedduu gochuu danda’uu keenya malee waa hedduu gochaa jiraachuu keenya miti. Mee holola irraa ada kan ta’eef dhugaa har’a lafa jiru ykn sadarkaan qabsoo bilisummaa ummata oromoo galma ga’uuf tarkaanfiin meeqa akka isa hafee jiru ani hubachuu gatii hin dandeenyeef, ykn akka ilaalcha kootti lafa ”yeroon kan Oromooti” najechisiisu irra waanan hin jirreef, kana namni 1,2…..jedhu yoo jiraate, itti dabalee tarkaanfiin hafe kana kanaan xumurama kan jedhu yoo jiraate mee katabaa. ana qofaa osoo hin taane namootni muraasi akka koo duumessa gannaa keessa jiru warreen bilisummaan balbala oromm irra geesse jedhu waliin tarkaanfachuuf nuffayyada ta’aa.
Terrefa,
Yes, but what is in it now for the Oromos if the whole country disintegrates in to a total anarchy and war of all against all because in the process that country may become even worse than Somalia with Oromo clans fighting each other as if there no tomorrow and all other schauvinists and bitter neighbourhood minoritities taking on Oromos with full force rendering your condition even worse may be by 99% wthan it is now. Only a Mad and sworn naive blind anarchist or agnet provocative enemy cadres may agree with your irresponsible and distructive propaganda at this time. In the situation, there is a possibility that Oromia may even be recolonized even more firmily by organized and ambitious foreign neigbour countries.
But what does it matter to you because you are shuoting from a foreign country with no risk to your life and limbs but the ALL HELL will only discend on the heads of the Oromo population at home similar to the last some 200 years.
Perhaps only Tigres may run back to Tigrai and use their political, military, economic as well as their national and international networking capitals of the last 21 long years.
Barking, barking, barking, empty barking, “time has come for us, time has come for us, time has come for us…” and then running to the next shallow ditch with out sustainable planning and sustainable unity, alliances, broad based front formations, national and international networkings in terms of effective diplomacy, politics, economy, propaganda, military, social capitals, etc.
Time will not come for you bucause you have to make/cause the time to come for you by your own proactive efforts in which case that time which you have worked for may in due time simply fall in to your waiting arms, saying, “I HAVE COME FOR YOU”as a reward and your proactive hard work. I am not saying what I am saying just to be negative and oppose other good people’s view but only to shaw other realities that might be overlooked and lead to repeat failures we have been witniessing soooo looong. Araat Nexxib. ::
HUndee Oduu,
You are one of the hudee “sobaa”. Let the Empire disintegrate we, the oromos lose. Their is noway the Oromoos lose by disintegration of empire. What Oromoos gain under empire is death, torture, kidnapping, eviction, and all kind of evil and inhuman degredation.Those who lose by demise of empire is looters, killers and scavegers like you who collect left overs of Habashas.
Hude,your comments is just 3xpired book of Naftegna,founders of genocide system .You like it or not Oromia will be a republic an independent.
Oromos did not have clan fighting and will never have it,that’s your wish and deeds.
The evil empire will be dismantled ,the occupied nations will be free
No more to the return of Naftegna and TPLF rule.It seems you are sleeping and have clues about what is going on in the empire.
Hude,your comments is just 3xpired book of Naftegna,founders of genocide system .You like it or not Oromia will be a republic an independent.
Oromos did not have clan fighting and will never have it,that’s your wish and deeds.
The evil empire will be dismantled ,the occupied nations will be free
No more to the return of Naftegna and TPLF rule.It seems you are sleeping and have no clues about what is going on in the empire.
Galaangalee Sabaaa,
You are deep and down in the past but only in the past traumas with no idea of the current local and global happenings as well as lacking an iota of the future and clear visions needed for political change and justice for all. This type blind anarchism and hate ideology zero sum game of my way or no way leades only down to the drain. Oromos are much more smarter and much more understanding of local conditions. Every body loves freedom and independence. There is not question about that! But what is cost and benefits of such freedom and independence and how realistic is it at a certain given time? Rational and cool approach is the way rather than empty and loud barking of no significant or useful contents. I am not a politician at all but explain your self and argue for you position rationally inorder to convince people like me with detail and clear advantages and disadvantages attached to your rather than throwing junk as if you have nothing to offer other than junks alone. We are in same boat but the contents of the boats nned to be known to all in order to make the over all common jouney smooth and successful. Otherwise petty power struggle and dishonest propaganda may not anywhere just like we have seen for the last several years. The death of Meles may have devastated you because you seem to be outraged more than any time when you are soppuse to be celebrating and looking for some fresh windows of opportunities. Hmmm…