The Ogaden Peace Talks: Public Relations Stunt or Genuine Initiative?
Jawar Mohammed | September 11, 2012
(Gulele Post) – It is reported that the Ethiopian government has held another round of peace talks with the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) in Nairobi. First announced by the Ethiopian government, the news is confirmed by the rebel group, which has listed the key procedural points on which preliminary agreement has been reached. This was followed by another announcement that the Swedish journalists sentenced to 11 years after they were caught in Ogaden have been pardoned. This is an interesting development, but might not necessarily be a game changer for the conflict.
Why now?
The negotiation, which is being mediated by Kenya, has been going on for about a year according to sources taking part in the process. The latest round of negotiation was attended by a high level delegation from both sides: the government was represented by the defense minister, while the Ogadenis sent the commander of the army, head of its diplomatic section and prominent intellectuals representing civic society. Therefore, it seems each side wanted to make this appear a serious undertaking, and they have already achieved that as the news has gone viral among the international media. However, the timing of the current announcement and history of the prior relation between the two parties makes us doubtful.
Second even as the said negotiation was taking place in Nairobi, the Ethiopian authorities continue continue to terrorize the Ogadeni civilians. The ogadenonline reports that “ mass murder took place in the Village of Miirdanbas near Qoriile town on Sept 6, 2012” and lists names of 13 people who were killed. Committing such horrendous act while holding peace talk on the other side of the border does not signal real interest in resolving the conflict.
Third, the intent of the Ethiopian government’s decision to engage in such public negotiation with an insurgent group at a time when the ruling party is struggling to contain the boiling factional war on succession is suspicious. The year-long talks were said to have been suspended due to Meles’s sickness, and there is no logical reason that their resumption could not have waited until the new prime minister is in place. Hence, this announcement is either a diversionary tactic meant to distract public attention from the internal crisis, or one of the factions is using this as public relations stunt to present itself as a more reformist choice. Moreover, the regime hopes that such positive news would help it deflect attention from thenationwide protest by the Muslim community demanding religious freedom and the growing urban grievance caused by the rising cost of food.
Reaching out to one of the several rebel parties is a well-known tactic of the ruling party whenever it faces crisis. For instance, when his hold on power was threatened by the Amhara parties following the 2005 election, in order to avoid fighting the two largest ethnic groups (Oromo and Amhara) at the same time, Meles initiated negotiations with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), only to reverse course once he put the situation under his control. Similarly, in 2008 during the height of the ONLF’s military successes in the region, the Ethiopian government initiated discussion with the United Western Somali Liberation Front (UWSLF) and smaller factions of the ONLF itself, finally securing their surrender in 2010.
During the run up to the 2010 election, two opposition leaders, Lidetu Ayalew and Hailu Shewal signed agreement with Meles on electoral code of conduct, while the larger coalition, Medrek, refused to do so insisting on electoral reform. As the opposition bickered on this defection, the pressure on the government to establish an independent electoral board was reduced, enabling it to eventually claim a 99.6% victory. Those who sided with the regime were denied even a single seat as reward and came out humiliated and with eroded political legitimacy. Basically, the regime has been using peace talks as a tactical weapon to divide and weaken its adversaries, and this has worked for it quite effectively as its opponents keep falling for the ploy.
–Full Report Gulele Post
I am surprised when oppressed people such as ogadenians, oromos and sidams even think about negotiation with Abysinians [Amharas and Tigres]. Abysinians never understand peacful ways of settling political differences. Please donot waste your time. keep on fighting.
There is no use advising other people what they should do concerning their own affairs. The best way is that they go through the process and gain experiences whetehr positive or negative. Wayanes have been doing suystematic underground work among Somalis and other minorities in the areas of bad mouthing Oromos and promoting themselves even while working with an Oromo group. In the case of the Ogandenis some years ago the tplf was secretely working with Sweden’s Carl Bildt who was Prime Minister of Sweden from 1991 to 1994 when he invested a lot of money in the development of Ogaden oil exploitation as the conflict between ONLF and the TPLF was raging at the time. The two Swedish journalist who have just been released went to Ogaden in order to find out the connections between Swedish/Carl Bildt capital, the tplf and the oil exploration agreement project. On learning the the where about of the Swedish journaklist when they were in Oganden in the company of the ONLF fighters both Carl Bildt and the tplf buddies were more than MAD. Ironically roumours say may be both Carl Bildt and the tplf simply “wanted to get rid of” these investigative journalists” inorder to keep their business secret deals. But now Meles dead both the tplf, the ONLF and Carl Bildt/Sweden may want to come together and do the oiling job to explore the exploitartion of the oil resources in order to divide the cash between the three according to some agreed proportional dividends. Tplf will say that the dead tyrant pardoned them from his grave and Cral Bildt/Sweden will say, “yes that is true, We have known about the coming pardon already about a year ago.” even though they knew it only few days a go so that business may continue as usual of course with me having NONE like always. Tplf must also be in hurry to make the secret deal and stamp with the iron seal and go forwards to areas of oilings that go with it before any new form of government sets in with new economic ministers and other related officials who may not be willing to do the corrupt Wayane style Mafia business as ususual. Time and timing is the essence for robbers like always. Money talks but not peace talks really.
Isayyuu yoo jiraatan, dirqisiisan araaraaf waamamu, jirti malee warrittiin ABO jettee namaa gadi nugootee teesse!!
Oroon gartokko Oromoota warra bulchiisa keessa jiranii wajjiin harka walqabatanii humnaa kuufatani abshaalumadhaan aka rimmaatti bobaatti nammanii soofanii fixxuunis kara gaaridhaa ka yeroo dheeradhan biyya san keessatti ojjetee waan ta’eef. Isaan ammayyu karaa tokko kanumaa ojjetuu galgalaa fi ganamaa iyu. Warri hankeenyasi akasis ojjii tokko godhani fuddachuu qabuu yoo amma hinqaban ta’ee.